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Sat February 16, 2008

Subprime time: National news skews local views

By Richard Mize
Real Estate Editor

Less than 5 percent of Oklahoma home mortgages are subprime loans and half of them have fixed rates, not the fast-reset adjustable rates that are causing much of the foreclosure crisis in other parts of the country.

That's one reason the Sooner State is sidestepping the national housing slump and home-loan mess, said Ron McCord of First Mortgage Co.

McCord was among finance experts bringing perspective to perceptions and misperceptions surrounding credit markets at the annual forecast by the Commercial Real Estate Council of Oklahoma City. The Journal Record organized the event Thursday at the Skirvin Hilton Hotel.

What makes most subprime loans in Oklahoma subprime are higher-than-average interest rates, not the structure of the loan payback, McCord said.

In markets now in the most turmoil, loans were made to people who qualified for them based on initial "teaser” interest rates — and when those rates reset at higher levels, their monthly house payments went up and they couldn't afford to make them.

Oklahoma's strong employment and economy will keep the subprime debacle from hitting the state directly, he said.

"We've got a solid market. It's not going to be a great year in Oklahoma, but it's going to be a good year,” he said.

But, he had a warning for those who worry that bad national news is making home buyers here skittish, even with mortgage rates still below 6 percent:

You haven't seen anything yet.

Just less than $200 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages reset in the first half of last year. That's what caused Wall Street investors to freeze their purchase of bonds that securitize bundled mortgages, which caused credit to dry up.

McCord said three times as much, some $600 billion in adjustable mortgages, will reset the first half of this year — which could cause another earthquake on Wall Street and trigger a new wave of bad news.

Further, because major mortgage loan servicers have outsourced so many tasks, it will take longer to work through foreclosures, he said.

He said he recently worked with a woman who had not made a house payment for nine months. He was trying to work out a "short sale” — that is, to get the lender to sell it for less than she owed. With the lender's first phone contact in India, McCord said, it took eight weeks just to get someone to understand the problem.

In the 1980s oil and real estate bust here, lenders learned fast that "it was hand-to-hand and door-to-door combat,” he said. "You've got to get in their face and work with (borrowers).”

The new global logistical problems will prolong foreclosure crises in markets dealing with them — and that will keep the trouble in headlines, online information services and TV news longer.

That means the Oklahoma Association of Realtors could have its work cut out for it as it attempts to stem the tide of negative national news that is believed to have so many buyers in Oklahoma slow to make purchases even though the state's economy is in good shape — and positively rosy compared to hard-hit major housing markets.

The association revealed a $200 thousand advertising-marketing campaign Thursday dubbed "Good Thing You're in Oklahoma.” The point was to get the word out that home prices continued to rise here last year — to $149,758, up 4.24 percent from 2006.

The National Association of Realtors also has stepped up efforts to point out that a national average is one thing but local housing markets are another. The national association gave buyers estranged from healthy markets a valentine Thursday in the form of data showing the drastic disparities among cities.

Almost one-half of the top 150 metropolitan statistical areas had rising home prices in the last quarter of last year, the Realtors reported.

Of the 73 on the rise, 11 saw double-digit annual gains and 12 had increases of 6 percent or more.

Of the 77 markets with falling values, 16 had double-digit drops, the Realtors said.

Drops in higher-priced markets came partly because of the tightening of credit backing "jumbo” home loans — those of more than $417,000, which are not backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac — and subsequent higher rates for the larger loans, according to the Realtors.

Relatively few homes in Oklahoma sell for more than $417,000. The median price of homes sold in Oklahoma City, for example, was $129,074 last year, according to the metro Realtors.

 

Go to WhyRealtorsWork.com